Determinante potrošnje domaćinstava u Srbiji – Metodološki pristupi i empirijski rezultati
Determinants of Household Consumption in Serbia -Methodological Approaches and Empirical Results
Apstrakt
Predmet ovog rada jeste kvantifikovanje uticaja dohotka (visine primanja domaćinstava) koji predstavlja ključnu ekonomsku varijablu koja određuje okvir za ličnu potrošnju domaćinstava. Pored dohotka, ispitivan je uticaj regionalne pripadnosti domaćinstva, veličine domaćinstva, socijalno-ekonomskog statusa domaćinstva, pola, starosti i nivoa obrazovanja nosioca domaćinstva – varijabli koje samostalno deluju na potrošnju, pojačavajući ili slabeći uticaj dohotka kao glavne eksplanatorne varijable. Cilj rada jeste da pruži uvid u različite metodološke pristupe empirijskim/ekonometrijskim istraživanjima determinanti potrošačke tražnje, na primeru empirijske analize porodičnih budžeta domaćinstava u Srbiji. Na osnovu ankete o potrošnji 6.354 domaćinstava u Srbiji, koju je 2019. godine, prema jedinstvenoj metodologiji Evropske agencije za statistiku, sproveo Zavod za statistiku Republike Srbije, ocenjeni su osnovni parametri potrošačke tražnje. Primenjena su dva ekonometrijska pristupa: model zasnovan na kompletnim sistemima regresionih jednačina i model zasnovan na jednoj regresionoj jednačini. Dobijeni empirijski rezultati su u skladu sa nalazima većine ekonometričara primenjene analize potrošačke tražnje.
Abstract
The subject of this paper is to quantify the impact of income (household income) which is a key economic variable that determines the framework for personal consumption of households. In addition to income, the influence of household regional affiliation, household size, socio-economic status of the household, gender, age and level of education of the household head - variables that independently affect consumption, increasing or decreasing the influence of income as the main explanatory variables, was examined. The aim of this paper is to provide insight into different methodological approaches to empirical / econometric research of determinants of consumer demand, on the example of empirical analysis of family budgets of households in Serbia. Based on the survey on the consumption of 6,354 households in Serbia, which was conducted in 2019, according to the unique methodology of the European Agency for Statistics, by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the basic parameters of consumer demand were assessed. Two econometric approaches were applied: a model based on complete systems of regression equations and a model based on one regression equation. The obtained empirical results are in accordance with the findings of most econometricians of applied consumer demand analysis.
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